Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Ram Squadwin 1:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Galkynyshloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ram Squad
No games played over 6 months.
Galkynysh
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
776 picks · 587 bans
Disruptor
549 picks · 439 bans
Tiny
442 picks · 377 bans
Nature's Prophet
414 picks · 690 bans
Beastmaster
411 picks · 957 bans
Undying
401 picks · 588 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 207 bans
Snapfire
387 picks · 289 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Ram Squad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Galkynysh
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Ram Squad 43%Galkynysh 57%
The model gave 57% on Galkynysh — the game was taken by Ram Squad.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalkynysh · 57%
Series resultRam Squad 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1