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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
South America Rejectsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 27 games
67%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
SSS · 26 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 21 game
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 20 games
50%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 20 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
No[o]ne · 17 games
59%

South America Rejects

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wits · 6 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Scofield · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Frank · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Scofield · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
612 picks · 571 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
521 picks · 415 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 411 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
459 picks · 523 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
452 picks · 229 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
401 picks · 251 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1036 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 899 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:24
PARIVISION 71%South America Rejects 29%
The model gave 71% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 38:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSatanic
52% · 96 games45% · 40 games
AlchemistWits
Alchemist
Timbersaw
TimbersawSSS
46% · 132 games47% · 213 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingNo[o]ne
55% · 150 games47% · 50 games
ViperFrank
Viper
Lone Druid
Lone Druid9Class
67% · 21 game42% · 91 game
EnchantressElmisho
Enchantress
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDukalis
58% · 39 games55% · 44 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct24:5
PARIVISION 71%South America Rejects 29%
The model gave 71% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 25:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSatanic
48% · 104 games54% · 287 games
BristlebackFrank
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSSS
47% · 285 games45% · 275 games
Queen of PainDarkMago
Queen of Pain
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNo[o]ne
48% · 213 games57% · 197 games
WindrangerWits
Windranger
Enchantress
Enchantress9Class
48% · 107 games48% · 91 game
VenomancerElmisho
Venomancer
Phoenix
PhoenixDukalis
45% · 217 games61% · 76 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct35:5
PARIVISION 71%South America Rejects 29%
The model gave 71% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 27:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSatanic
48% · 67 games51% · 278 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNo[o]ne
43% · 199 games48% · 97 games
Dark SeerFrank
Dark Seer
Largo
LargoSSS
52% · 51 game42% · 9 games
NecrophosWits
Necrophos
Phoenix
PhoenixDukalis
51% · 155 games51% · 74 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
57% · 95 games50% · 109 games
EnchantressElmisho
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 86%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3