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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportswin 2:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Rubick
Rubick
PlayHard · 15 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
DuBu · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
PlayHard · 5 games
60%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 4 games
25%
Mirana
Mirana
DuBu · 4 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
100%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
50%

Execration

Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
59%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 23 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 19 games
37%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 13 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 12 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
778 picks · 589 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
547 picks · 438 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 379 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
418 picks · 694 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
410 picks · 959 bans
57%
Undying
Undying
404 picks · 588 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
393 picks · 211 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
390 picks · 290 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 30%
Hero pool strength56% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total71% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:34
Bleed Esports 41%Execration 59%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 40:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomiceiceice
49% · 205 games46% · 55 games
MagnusPalos
Magnus
Monkey King
Monkey KingJaCkky
58% · 167 games54% · 96 games
Void SpiritBob
Void Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageDJ
49% · 101 game50% · 100 games
UnderlordTino-
Underlord
Disruptor
DisruptorDuBu
48% · 258 games46% · 480 games
RubickShanks
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed22:16
Bleed Esports 38%Execration 62%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 44:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJaCkky
49% · 48 games58% · 51 game
MedusaTino-
Medusa
Enchantress
EnchantressDJ
37% · 100 games57% · 174 games
PuckBob
Puck
Batrider
Batridericeiceice
50% · 85 games53% · 44 games
MagnusPalos
Magnus
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDuBu
40% · 76 games60% · 40 games
Bounty HunterShanks
Bounty Hunter
Game 3prediction missed32:8
Bleed Esports 38%Execration 62%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 38:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJaCkky
50% · 156 games65% · 12 games
HuskarBob
Huskar
Brewmaster
Brewmastericeiceice
49% · 41 game52% · 199 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressDJ
47% · 201 game48% · 195 games
MarciPalos
Marci
Warlock
WarlockDuBu
45% · 43 games56% · 35 games
TechiesShanks
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 71%
Series resultBleed Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3