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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
23savage · 15 games
60%

Team SMG

Rubick
Rubick
Poloson · 18 games
44%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 13 games
69%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 13 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 11 games
55%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 8 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moon · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 7 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
779 picks · 588 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
547 picks · 438 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 380 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
419 picks · 695 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
412 picks · 960 bans
57%
Undying
Undying
405 picks · 589 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
394 picks · 213 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
392 picks · 290 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 40%
Hero pool strength60% Talon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total80% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:12
Talon Esports 66%Team SMG 34%
The model gave 66% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker23savage
48% · 89 games51% · 240 games
PangolierMidOne
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
54% · 64 games40% · 44 games
VenomancerJaunuel
Venomancer
Underlord
UnderlordJabz
50% · 54 games51% · 91 game
Skywrath MageAhFu
Skywrath Mage
Enchantress
EnchantressQ
48% · 131 game
Pugna
PugnaOli
59% · 37 games
Game 2prediction correct55:50
Talon Esports 68%Team SMG 32%
The model gave 68% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:08:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancer23savage
44% · 23 games57% · 42 games
Earth SpiritMidOne
Earth Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
55% · 119 games48% · 43 games
TechiesAhFu
Techies
Underlord
UnderlordJabz
49% · 43 games45% · 142 games
Crystal MaidenJaunuel
Crystal Maiden
Windranger
WindrangerQ
43% · 17 games
Pugna
PugnaOli
61% · 25 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 80%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2