Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Unitieswin 1:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TTeam.outloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Unities
No games played over 6 months.
Team.out
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
779 picks · 588 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 438 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 380 bans
Nature's Prophet
419 picks · 695 bans
Beastmaster
412 picks · 960 bans
Undying
405 picks · 589 bans
Mirana
394 picks · 213 bans
Snapfire
392 picks · 290 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Unities
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team.out
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Unities 46%Team.out 54%
The model gave 54% on Team.out — the game was taken by Unities.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam.out · 54%
Series resultUnities 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1