Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionSESu4 Esportswin 1:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TWTeam WE Togetherloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Su4 Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Team WE Together
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
779 picks · 588 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 438 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 380 bans
Nature's Prophet
419 picks · 695 bans
Beastmaster
412 picks · 960 bans
Undying
405 picks · 589 bans
Mirana
394 picks · 213 bans
Snapfire
392 picks · 290 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Su4 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team WE Together
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Su4 Esports 43%Team WE Together 57%
The model gave 57% on Team WE Together — the game was taken by Su4 Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam WE Together · 57%
Series resultSu4 Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1