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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MODUSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 31 game
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 27 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 26 games
46%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 25 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 20 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SSS · 18 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 17 games
53%

MODUS

Muerta
Muerta
bottega · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
mrls · 4 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
elmo^^ · 3 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xn丶e · 3 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 3 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
prblms · 3 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
bottega · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
612 picks · 571 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
521 picks · 415 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 411 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
459 picks · 523 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
452 picks · 229 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
401 picks · 251 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1036 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 899 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
1w Team 83%MODUS 17%
The model gave 83% on 1w Team — the game was taken by MODUS.
Game 2prediction correct
1w Team 83%MODUS 17%
The model gave 83% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team.
Game 3prediction correct
1w Team 83%MODUS 17%
The model gave 83% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 83%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3