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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 29 games
62%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 29 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 26 games
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
72%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 23 games
52%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 23 games
78%
Tiny
Tiny
NothingToSay · 22 games
50%

Vici Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakiro
y` · 18 games
33%
Tiny
Tinysignature
pLAnet · 13 games
62%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
shiro · 13 games
46%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 11 games
36%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
73%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
612 picks · 571 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
521 picks · 413 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 411 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
459 picks · 522 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
451 picks · 228 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
400 picks · 250 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1034 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 898 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total55% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:6
Xtreme Gaming 53%Vici Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinAme
49% · 38 games59% · 224 games
Monkey KingXm
Monkey King
Axe
AxeXxs
47% · 144 games49% · 71 game
Alchemistshiro
Alchemist
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
48% · 248 games50% · 388 games
BeastmasterFaith_bian
Beastmaster
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
50% · 333 games49% · 160 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Warlock
WarlockxNova
51% · 281 game50% · 201 game
Dazzley`
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct40:8
Xtreme Gaming 54%Vici Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAme
58% · 54 games47% · 173 games
Windrangershiro
Windranger
Doom
DoomXxs
49% · 128 games40% · 310 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
52% · 318 games52% · 115 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Venomancer
VenomancerxNova
54% · 60 games48% · 51 game
AlchemistFaith_bian
Alchemist
Dark Willow
Dark Willowfy
54% · 124 games51% · 35 games
Ioy`
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 55%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2