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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balrogsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 24 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 23 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 19 games
58%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 18 games
72%

Balrogs

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Demon · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 11 games
82%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
ShakaLord · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 9 games
67%
Silencer
Silencer
ShakaLord · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
drakesh1t · 8 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Demon · 8 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
781 picks · 587 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
545 picks · 438 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 382 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
420 picks · 698 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
411 picks · 961 bans
57%
Undying
Undying
408 picks · 592 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
393 picks · 213 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
393 picks · 291 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:16
Evil Geniuses 74%Balrogs 26%
The model gave 74% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 30:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaPakazs
57% · 62 games45% · 93 games
UrsaDM
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightChris Luck
54% · 104 games47% · 150 games
Storm SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
53% · 202 games40% · 113 games
Keeper of the LightDemon
Keeper of the Light
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMatthew
62% · 99 games43% · 129 games
Crystal MaidenShakaLord
Crystal Maiden
Oracle
OraclePanda
53% · 18 games
Game 2prediction correct19:10
Evil Geniuses 70%Balrogs 30%
The model gave 70% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 24:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightPakazs
44% · 115 games45% · 48 games
Wraith KingDM
Wraith King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChris Luck
49% · 166 games51% · 346 games
Ember SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterWisper
47% · 97 games58% · 306 games
MiranaDemon
Mirana
Rubick
RubickMatthew
47% · 589 games53% · 332 games
DisruptorShakaLord
Disruptor
Pugna
PugnaPanda
49% · 65 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 88%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2