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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GamerLegionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 33 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 30 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
68%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
71%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 27 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
70%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 21 game
62%

GamerLegion

Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 23 games
70%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 22 games
55%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
RCY · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 20 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
612 picks · 571 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 412 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 410 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
457 picks · 522 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
449 picks · 228 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
400 picks · 250 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1034 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 898 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:18
Team Falcons 66%GamerLegion 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 52:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
44% · 67 games45% · 341 game
BeastmasterRCY
Beastmaster
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
53% · 209 games52% · 90 games
AlchemistGhost
Alchemist
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMalr1ne
45% · 134 games53% · 166 games
Sand KingFayde
Sand King
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
51% · 143 games57% · 185 games
ChenSpeeed
Chen
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
50% · 286 games46% · 57 games
TechiesBignum
Techies
Game 2prediction correct29:21
Team Falcons 64%GamerLegion 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 41:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinySkiter
51% · 229 games58% · 34 games
Lone DruidGhost
Lone Druid
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
54% · 158 games50% · 238 games
DoomFayde
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
38% · 217 games48% · 269 games
Sand KingRCY
Sand King
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
50% · 125 games53% · 228 games
RubickBignum
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
48% · 224 games53% · 184 games
SilencerSpeeed
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 78%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2