Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTLThe Last Darkwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SESu4 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Last Dark
No games played over 6 months.
Su4 Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
795 picks · 587 bans
Disruptor
545 picks · 438 bans
Tiny
456 picks · 384 bans
Nature's Prophet
425 picks · 710 bans
Undying
413 picks · 596 bans
Beastmaster
412 picks · 969 bans
Snapfire
399 picks · 295 bans
Mirana
394 picks · 218 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% The Last Dark
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% The Last Dark
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
The Last Dark 60%Su4 Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by Su4 Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
The Last Dark 60%Su4 Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by The Last Dark.
Game 3prediction correct
The Last Dark 60%Su4 Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by The Last Dark.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Dark · 60%
Series resultThe Last Dark 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3