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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 1:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techies
Antares · 37 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 36 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 20 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
65%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 18 games
72%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 17 games
65%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
78%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
83%
Mirana
Miranasignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
82%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
903 picks · 663 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
572 picks · 442 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
541 picks · 422 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
499 picks · 794 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
462 picks · 1076 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
453 picks · 331 bans
46%
Undying
Undying
450 picks · 625 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
449 picks · 252 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 66%
Hero pool strength64% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:16
9Pandas 26%Team Liquid 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painkiyotaka
45% · 42 games51% · 126 games
TerrorblademiCKe
Terrorblade
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerRAMZES666
45% · 47 games54% · 110 games
LeshracNisha
Leshrac
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMieRo
51% · 241 game50% · 76 games
Tidehunterzai
Tidehunter
Techies
TechiesAntares
42% · 57 games48% · 126 games
Monkey KingBoxi
Monkey King
Chen
ChenRodjER
56% · 62 games61% · 11 games
OracleiNSaNiA
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct20:41
9Pandas 30%Team Liquid 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeRAMZES666
52% · 137 games60% · 76 games
AlchemistmiCKe
Alchemist
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
48% · 165 games49% · 52 games
Medusazai
Medusa
Batrider
BatriderMieRo
47% · 167 games47% · 249 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterAntares
49% · 23 games46% · 45 games
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
Shadow Demon
Oracle
OracleRodjER
49% · 25 games51% · 95 games
Skywrath MageBoxi
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct7:23
9Pandas 31%Team Liquid 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 21:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomMieRo
49% · 105 games50% · 114 games
AlchemistmiCKe
Alchemist
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeRAMZES666
58% · 56 games62% · 35 games
Lone DruidNisha
Lone Druid
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
48% · 61 game39% · 16 games
Witch Doctorzai
Witch Doctor
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
48% · 57 games51% · 24 games
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
Ancient Apparition
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRodjER
50% · 14 games47% · 104 games
IoBoxi
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 85%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3