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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 29 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 16 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 14 games
64%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 13 games
62%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 13 games
62%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 12 games
58%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
58%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 23 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 23 games
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 18 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
924 picks · 674 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
578 picks · 441 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 429 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
510 picks · 809 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
468 picks · 1096 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
464 picks · 335 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
460 picks · 336 bans
48%
Mirana
Mirana
455 picks · 256 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total57% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:49
OG 49%Evil Geniuses 51%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 59:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuragi
50% · 123 games62% · 35 games
Naga SirenPakazs
Naga Siren
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
52% · 71 game34% · 30 games
Anti-MageChris Luck
Anti-Mage
Slardar
SlardarMinD_ContRoL
63% · 26 games41% · 30 games
VenomancerWisper
Venomancer
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterTaiga
54% · 36 games53% · 63 games
Keeper of the LightMatthew
Keeper of the Light
44% · 98 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed32:27
OG 42%Evil Geniuses 58%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by OG in 35:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerYuragi
37% · 36 games43% · 54 games
BloodseekerPakazs
Bloodseeker
Batrider
BatriderMinD_ContRoL
55% · 212 games47% · 64 games
Keeper of the LightWisper
Keeper of the Light
Windranger
Windrangerbzm
52% · 50 games56% · 96 games
Queen of PainChris Luck
Queen of Pain
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritTaiga
54% · 69 games52% · 90 games
Monkey KingMatthew
Monkey King
48% · 63 games
SilencerPanda
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct9:39
OG 44%Evil Geniuses 56%
The model gave 56% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 29:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYuragi
52% · 94 games53% · 147 games
Monkey KingPakazs
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
50% · 265 games55% · 100 games
KunkkaChris Luck
Kunkka
Windranger
Windrangerbzm
51% · 52 games45% · 184 games
DoomWisper
Doom
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenTaiga
45% · 156 games45% · 111 games
Keeper of the LightPanda
Keeper of the Light
64% · 25 games
Bounty HunterMatthew
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 57%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3