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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 31 game
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 30 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 27 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 23 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 22 games
68%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 20 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Sneyking · 20 games
55%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
78%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
83%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Mirana
Miranasignature
iNSaNiA · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
928 picks · 677 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
578 picks · 441 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
558 picks · 430 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
514 picks · 814 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
469 picks · 1100 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
468 picks · 338 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 337 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
459 picks · 1036 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 65%
Hero pool strength58% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 6
Model total62% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:32
Tundra Esports 43%Team Liquid 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 48:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
59% · 148 games47% · 112 games
UrsamiCKe
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNine
44% · 100 games45% · 224 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
48% · 71 game57% · 178 games
Doomzai
Doom
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSaksa
48% · 166 games48% · 189 games
MiranaBoxi
Mirana
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
52% · 281 game50% · 63 games
LichiNSaNiA
Lich
Game 2prediction correct10:40
Tundra Esports 42%Team Liquid 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
47% · 103 games47% · 103 games
BloodseekermiCKe
Bloodseeker
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNine
50% · 172 games55% · 173 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Axe
Axe33
44% · 13 games55% · 246 games
Beastmasterzai
Beastmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSaksa
48% · 147 games54% · 60 games
TechiesBoxi
Techies
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
49% · 236 games47% · 89 games
SilenceriNSaNiA
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 62%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2