?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 23 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 22 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 17 games
59%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
23savage · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
927 picks · 684 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
579 picks · 440 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 430 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
515 picks · 821 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
470 picks · 341 bans
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
468 picks · 1106 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 339 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
459 picks · 1041 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:37
Evil Geniuses 54%Talon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 55:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidPakazs
52% · 114 games56% · 183 games
Terrorblade23savage
Terrorblade
Underlord
UnderlordChris Luck
45% · 69 games46% · 88 games
Void SpiritMikoto
Void Spirit
Batrider
BatriderWisper
48% · 87 games52% · 53 games
MagnusJabz
Magnus
Rubick
RubickMatthew
44% · 249 games50% · 173 games
Keeper of the LightQ
Keeper of the Light
Lich
LichPanda
54% · 36 games59% · 58 games
PugnaOli
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct34:5
Evil Geniuses 56%Talon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 25:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChris Luck
54% · 210 games49% · 62 games
Anti-Mage23savage
Anti-Mage
Slark
SlarkPakazs
58% · 99 games50% · 252 games
BeastmasterJabz
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireWisper
47% · 308 games44% · 163 games
Dragon KnightMikoto
Dragon Knight
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMatthew
54% · 42 games51% · 134 games
Keeper of the LightQ
Keeper of the Light
Pugna
PugnaPanda
56% · 103 games37% · 151 game
Crystal MaidenOli
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 59%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2