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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:1
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techies
Antares · 37 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 36 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 20 games
55%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 18 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 17 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
kiyotaka · 16 games
44%

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 31 game
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 30 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 27 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 23 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 22 games
68%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 20 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
965 picks · 695 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
587 picks · 440 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
584 picks · 443 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
530 picks · 851 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 357 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
488 picks · 347 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
481 picks · 1064 bans
49%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
480 picks · 1147 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:11
9Pandas 35%Tundra Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 33:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistRAMZES666
56% · 85 games44% · 175 games
TimbersawNine
Timbersaw
Doom
DoomMieRo
47% · 186 games54% · 96 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Tiny
Tinykiyotaka
51% · 280 games47% · 130 games
Underlord33
Underlord
Chen
ChenRodjER
57% · 91 game48% · 56 games
WindrangerSaksa
Windranger
Pugna
PugnaAntares
58% · 50 games44% · 235 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct7:25
9Pandas 32%Tundra Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 22:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
Batriderkiyotaka
44% · 136 games58% · 65 games
Naga SirenSkiter
Naga Siren
Slark
SlarkRAMZES666
45% · 123 games53% · 66 games
Medusa33
Medusa
Sand King
Sand KingMieRo
42% · 44 games43% · 275 games
RubickNine
Rubick
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinRodjER
54% · 62 games54% · 19 games
Bounty HunterSaksa
Bounty Hunter
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
52% · 97 games62% · 37 games
VenomancerSneyking
Venomancer
Game 3prediction missed42:37
9Pandas 33%Tundra Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 47:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
Tinkerkiyotaka
43% · 10 games56% · 146 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Monkey King
Monkey KingRAMZES666
52% · 145 games50% · 50 games
Underlord33
Underlord
Batrider
BatriderMieRo
49% · 113 games37% · 44 games
WindrangerNine
Windranger
Enchantress
EnchantressRodjER
50% · 189 games52% · 56 games
VenomancerSaksa
Venomancer
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterAntares
54% · 25 games48% · 186 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 80%
Series result9Pandas 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3