ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 44 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 30 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 27 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 26 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 24 games
Doomsignature
Ace · 22 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 22 games
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 29 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 16 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 14 games
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 13 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 13 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 13 games
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
966 picks · 696 bans
Tiny
590 picks · 440 bans
Disruptor
585 picks · 441 bans
Nature's Prophet
531 picks · 852 bans
Tusk
492 picks · 357 bans
Snapfire
491 picks · 347 bans
Ember Spirit
483 picks · 1064 bans
Death Prophet
481 picks · 1149 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 45%
Hero pool strength59% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total80% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:24
Gaimin Gladiators 70%OG 30%
The model gave 70% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 47:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladedyrachyo
WindrangerYuragi
Ember SpiritQuinn
Timbersawbzm
BeastmasterAce
DoomMinD_ContRoL
MiranatOfu
TechiesTaiga
EnchantressSeleri
Game 2prediction correct41:6
Gaimin Gladiators 68%OG 32%
The model gave 68% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 24:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomAce
Alchemistbzm
Terrorbladedyrachyo
Phantom LancerYuragi
PangolierQuinn
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
OracletOfu
Nyx AssassinTaiga
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 80%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2