?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
81%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 15 games
93%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 13 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 11 games
55%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
23savage · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
970 picks · 700 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
591 picks · 442 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
584 picks · 442 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
533 picks · 855 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 358 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
493 picks · 348 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
486 picks · 1069 bans
49%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
482 picks · 1154 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:27
LGD Gaming 51%Talon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 27:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistshiro
53% · 84 games53% · 91 game
Terrorblade23savage
Terrorblade
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
45% · 21 game44% · 20 games
MagnusJabz
Magnus
Brewmaster
Brewmasterzeal
52% · 57 games49% · 90 games
Dragon KnightMikoto
Dragon Knight
Abaddon
Abaddony`
43% · 79 games45% · 75 games
Keeper of the LightQ
Keeper of the Light
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagepLAnet
51% · 116 games56% · 81 game
DisruptorOli
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct30:50
LGD Gaming 50%Talon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:13:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNothingToSay
48% · 79 games50% · 52 games
Naga Siren23savage
Naga Siren
Sven
Svenshiro
50% · 49 games57% · 54 games
UnderlordMikoto
Underlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
51% · 87 games50% · 28 games
TechiesQ
Techies
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiy`
46% · 14 games45% · 19 games
VenomancerJabz
Venomancer
Magnus
Magnuszeal
45% · 25 games51% · 101 game
DisruptorOli
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 54%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2