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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 27 games
74%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 16 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 16 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
73%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
54%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 23 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 21 game
48%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 18 games
61%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
974 picks · 702 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
592 picks · 445 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
583 picks · 442 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
535 picks · 860 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 360 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
494 picks · 348 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
490 picks · 1073 bans
49%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
483 picks · 1159 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total63% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:28
Shopify Rebellion 57%Evil Geniuses 43%
The model gave 57% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 29:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenArteezy
57% · 79 games47% · 125 games
Shadow FiendChris Luck
Shadow Fiend
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
47% · 54 games50% · 177 games
Monkey KingPakazs
Monkey King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAbed
50% · 79 games55% · 77 games
TidehunterWisper
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
46% · 369 games50% · 32 games
Bounty HunterMatthew
Bounty Hunter
Oracle
OracleFly
60% · 13 games48% · 183 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed14:26
Shopify Rebellion 57%Evil Geniuses 43%
The model gave 57% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 27:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
55% · 330 games51% · 102 games
AlchemistPakazs
Alchemist
Doom
DoomSabeRLight-
46% · 262 games47% · 73 games
Centaur WarrunnerWisper
Centaur Warrunner
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordArteezy
50% · 62 games48% · 70 games
Legion CommanderChris Luck
Legion Commander
Techies
TechiesCr1t-
51% · 107 games55% · 268 games
DisruptorPanda
Disruptor
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
47% · 235 games50% · 483 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 63%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2