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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 31 game
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 31 game
61%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 31 game
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 23 games
61%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 22 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 19 games
74%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
61%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 31 game
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 19 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Riddys · 19 games
42%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Niku · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Niku · 18 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
614 picks · 572 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
518 picks · 413 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 406 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
454 picks · 520 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
449 picks · 225 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
401 picks · 250 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1033 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 897 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total55% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:31
Team Spirit 51%Natus Vincere 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierBatyuk
44% · 222 games49% · 181 game
Doomgotthejuice
Doom
Alchemist
AlchemistYatoro
55% · 57 games50% · 69 games
HuskarNiku
Huskar
Beastmaster
BeastmasterLarl
44% · 245 games51% · 198 games
Underlordpma
Underlord
Batrider
Batriderrue
52% · 196 games49% · 145 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerPanto
58% · 81 game50% · 208 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct30:20
Team Spirit 52%Natus Vincere 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 49:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidYatoro
59% · 23 games49% · 179 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
48% · 296 games56% · 44 games
Lycanpma
Lycan
Kunkka
KunkkaBatyuk
44% · 85 games50% · 160 games
Sand KingNiku
Sand King
Silencer
SilencerPanto
41% · 123 games48% · 43 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Rubick
Rubickrue
50% · 108 games61% · 209 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct38:6
Team Spirit 55%Natus Vincere 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYatoro
58% · 202 games53% · 112 games
Lycanpma
Lycan
Puck
PuckLarl
46% · 307 games47% · 174 games
Doomgotthejuice
Doom
Kunkka
KunkkaBatyuk
45% · 105 games49% · 267 games
Queen of PainNiku
Queen of Pain
Silencer
SilencerPanto
51% · 138 games48% · 187 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
52% · 367 games51% · 379 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 55%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3