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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:0
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techies
Antares · 37 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 36 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 20 games
55%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 17 games
65%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
kiyotaka · 16 games
44%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 16 games
69%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 27 games
74%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 14 games
86%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
986 picks · 707 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
601 picks · 448 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
583 picks · 444 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
545 picks · 871 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
505 picks · 371 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
496 picks · 1084 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
496 picks · 354 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
492 picks · 1172 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:26
9Pandas 33%Shopify Rebellion 67%
The model gave 67% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 50:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidRAMZES666
55% · 103 games48% · 104 games
MedusaArteezy
Medusa
Tiny
Tinykiyotaka
48% · 400 games56% · 177 games
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMieRo
42% · 45 games49% · 91 game
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Tidehunter
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
55% · 126 games52% · 168 games
Keeper of the LightCr1t-
Keeper of the Light
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinRodjER
43% · 90 games48% · 224 games
EnchantressFly
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed30:23
9Pandas 34%Shopify Rebellion 66%
The model gave 66% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 35:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckkiyotaka
55% · 201 game49% · 137 games
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Doom
DoomMieRo
50% · 207 games51% · 38 games
VenomancerSabeRLight-
Venomancer
Slardar
SlardarRAMZES666
47% · 27 games50% · 189 games
Monkey KingArteezy
Monkey King
Chen
ChenRodjER
51% · 77 games40% · 152 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Crystal Maiden
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
51% · 116 games53% · 112 games
IoCr1t-
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 79%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2