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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO1
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 1:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:0
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 23 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 21 game
48%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 18 games
61%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 17 games
76%

BETBOOM TEAM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Save- · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
Save- · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Save- · 12 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
gpK~ · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1008 picks · 714 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
617 picks · 456 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
588 picks · 445 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
553 picks · 888 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 385 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
510 picks · 358 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
504 picks · 1096 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
501 picks · 1192 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 31%
Hero pool strength52% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:24
Evil Geniuses 54%BETBOOM TEAM 46%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 1:11:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkPakazs
55% · 116 games43% · 29 games
MuertaNightfall
Muerta
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightWisper
50% · 191 game44% · 352 games
TinygpK~
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChris Luck
56% · 181 game51% · 201 game
DoomResolut1on
Doom
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMatthew
52% · 36 games43% · 151 game
Crystal MaidenTORONTOTOKYO
Crystal Maiden
Disruptor
DisruptorPanda
50% · 284 games54% · 75 games
PugnaSave-
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 59%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1