?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 1:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 18 games
39%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 17 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 16 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
29%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 23 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 21 game
48%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 18 games
61%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1009 picks · 716 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
620 picks · 456 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
587 picks · 444 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
553 picks · 890 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 387 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
511 picks · 359 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
504 picks · 1097 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
502 picks · 1193 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total64% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:31
Team Aster 42%Evil Geniuses 58%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Team Aster in 45:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistMonet
55% · 110 games50% · 140 games
BatriderChris Luck
Batrider
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSumaiL
40% · 119 games54% · 104 games
BloodseekerPakazs
Bloodseeker
Mars
MarsXxs
43% · 176 games49% · 127 games
Keeper of the LightWisper
Keeper of the Light
Pugna
PugnaBoBoKa
56% · 89 games56% · 180 games
Monkey KingMatthew
Monkey King
Disruptor
DisruptorFantasy
45% · 228 games51% · 171 game
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 64%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1