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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
JT- · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 10 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 8 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Dy · 7 games
43%
Doom
Doomoften banned
JT- · 7 games
43%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 27 games
74%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
73%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
54%
Lycan
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1010 picks · 712 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
621 picks · 456 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
585 picks · 441 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
554 picks · 892 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 388 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
511 picks · 360 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
503 picks · 1195 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
502 picks · 1099 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:27
Xtreme Gaming 46%Shopify Rebellion 54%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 25:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerGhost
51% · 112 games55% · 180 games
Monkey KingArteezy
Monkey King
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiJT-
44% · 40 games59% · 159 games
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPaparazi
50% · 209 games49% · 85 games
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Underlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightKaka
50% · 163 games41% · 97 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDy
51% · 169 games47% · 172 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed43:28
Xtreme Gaming 48%Shopify Rebellion 52%
The model gave 52% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:01:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageGhost
50% · 41 game53% · 68 games
MedusaArteezy
Medusa
Doom
DoomJT-
54% · 154 games48% · 65 games
AlchemistAbed
Alchemist
Pangolier
PangolierPaparazi
49% · 201 game48% · 166 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Lich
LichDy
41% · 49 games52% · 32 games
Bounty HunterSabeRLight-
Bounty Hunter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowKaka
54% · 35 games51% · 149 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2