?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
23savage · 15 games
60%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 47 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 22 games
86%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 19 games
79%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1010 picks · 712 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
621 picks · 456 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
585 picks · 441 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
554 picks · 892 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 388 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
511 picks · 360 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
503 picks · 1195 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
502 picks · 1099 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:20
Talon Esports 48%Team Spirit 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Siren23savage
47% · 84 games39% · 32 games
Anti-MageYatoro
Anti-Mage
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
48% · 75 games53% · 168 games
DoomCollapse
Doom
Underlord
UnderlordJabz
56% · 72 games56% · 60 games
ViperLarl
Viper
Techies
TechiesQ
44% · 56 games49% · 170 games
Crystal MaidenMira
Crystal Maiden
Disruptor
DisruptorOli
54% · 208 games45% · 65 games
LichMiposhka
Lich
Game 2prediction missed39:10
Talon Esports 50%Team Spirit 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 33:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade23savage
54% · 151 game55% · 176 games
DoomCollapse
Doom
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
50% · 109 games54% · 204 games
PangolierLarl
Pangolier
Underlord
UnderlordJabz
49% · 89 games45% · 28 games
MuertaYatoro
Muerta
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightQ
46% · 122 games43% · 107 games
Crystal MaidenMira
Crystal Maiden
Pugna
PugnaOli
55% · 73 games41% · 29 games
VenomancerMiposhka
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2