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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 0:2
series probability
9%91%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 31 game
65%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 16 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 15 games
47%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ari · 10 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
60%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 43 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 29 games
69%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
61%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 27 games
74%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 26 games
77%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 24 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ace · 22 games
73%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 22 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1004 picks · 712 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
620 picks · 456 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
584 picks · 438 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
554 picks · 892 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 388 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
511 picks · 360 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
502 picks · 1195 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
501 picks · 1096 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total91% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:23
TSM 23%Gaimin Gladiators 77%
The model gave 77% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 28:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingTimado
56% · 202 games53% · 116 games
Alchemistdyrachyo
Alchemist
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkasane
55% · 242 games49% · 105 games
Void SpiritQuinn
Void Spirit
Omniknight
Omniknightbryle-
55% · 31 game45% · 43 games
MagnusAce
Magnus
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenAri
41% · 181 game57% · 139 games
Skywrath MagetOfu
Skywrath Mage
Enchantress
EnchantressWhitemon
45% · 231 game45% · 484 games
RubickSeleri
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct8:24
TSM 24%Gaimin Gladiators 76%
The model gave 76% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 25:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherkasane
60% · 60 games43% · 3 games
MeepoAce
Meepo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageTimado
48% · 34 games41% · 55 games
Medusadyrachyo
Medusa
Earthshaker
Earthshakerbryle-
55% · 49 games48% · 296 games
Ember SpiritQuinn
Ember Spirit
Chen
ChenWhitemon
59% · 72 games48% · 129 games
Keeper of the LighttOfu
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickAri
48% · 292 games50% · 24 games
Bounty HunterSeleri
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 91%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2