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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
pLAnet · 16 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 15 games
93%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 14 games
86%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 11 games
73%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
pLAnet · 11 games
55%

BETBOOM TEAM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Save- · 18 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
Save- · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Save- · 12 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nightfall · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1004 picks · 712 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
620 picks · 456 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
584 picks · 438 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
554 picks · 892 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 388 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
511 picks · 360 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
502 picks · 1195 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
501 picks · 1096 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:28
LGD Gaming 57%BETBOOM TEAM 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 32:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenshiro
59% · 79 games51% · 154 games
BloodseekerNightfall
Bloodseeker
Primal Beast
Primal Beastzeal
45% · 135 games59% · 103 games
UnderlordResolut1on
Underlord
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
47% · 417 games51% · 214 games
Storm SpiritgpK~
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranapLAnet
49% · 270 games46% · 355 games
EnchantressSave-
Enchantress
Disruptor
Disruptory`
50% · 233 games46% · 308 games
Crystal MaidenTORONTOTOKYO
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct38:9
LGD Gaming 55%BETBOOM TEAM 45%
The model gave 55% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 37:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
55% · 158 games56% · 74 games
AlchemistNightfall
Alchemist
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekershiro
57% · 130 games52% · 65 games
Primal BeastgpK~
Primal Beast
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderzeal
45% · 65 games46% · 67 games
UnderlordResolut1on
Underlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
48% · 141 game46% · 248 games
RubickSave-
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
49% · 49 games44% · 89 games
Crystal MaidenTORONTOTOKYO
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2