ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Tusk
Q · 29 games
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
Rubick
Q · 17 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
23savage · 15 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1010 picks · 711 bans
Tiny
627 picks · 460 bans
Disruptor
586 picks · 433 bans
Nature's Prophet
556 picks · 900 bans
Tusk
522 picks · 391 bans
Snapfire
515 picks · 360 bans
Death Prophet
503 picks · 1202 bans
Ember Spirit
502 picks · 1102 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 35%
Hero pool strength60% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:3
Talon Esports 76%Invictus Gaming 24%
The model gave 76% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 20:45.
Game 2prediction correct30:11
Talon Esports 76%Invictus Gaming 24%
The model gave 76% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 47:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 76%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2