ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 29 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 14 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 13 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 13 games
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 12 games
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 11 games
Doomsignature
DM · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1011 picks · 710 bans
Tiny
630 picks · 461 bans
Disruptor
584 picks · 430 bans
Nature's Prophet
559 picks · 902 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 394 bans
Snapfire
516 picks · 363 bans
Death Prophet
507 picks · 1205 bans
Ember Spirit
502 picks · 1104 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 41%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total50% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:46
beastcoast 50%OG 50%
The model gave 50% on beastcoast — the game was taken by OG in 30:16.
Game 2prediction missed45:26
beastcoast 50%OG 50%
The model gave 50% on beastcoast — the game was taken by OG in 36:41.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 50%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2