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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 24 games
71%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
23savage · 15 games
60%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 26 games
77%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
77%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
79%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
54%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
54%
Lycan
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1011 picks · 710 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
630 picks · 461 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
584 picks · 430 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
559 picks · 902 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 394 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
516 picks · 363 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
507 picks · 1205 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
502 picks · 1104 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:2
Talon Esports 47%Shopify Rebellion 53%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 21:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa23savage
57% · 108 games55% · 118 games
DoomSabeRLight-
Doom
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
41% · 138 games46% · 235 games
TinyAbed
Tiny
Underlord
UnderlordJabz
50% · 90 gameslittle data
Arc WardenArteezy
Arc Warden
Techies
TechiesQ
47% · 81 game53% · 91 game
Keeper of the LightCr1t-
Keeper of the Light
Pugna
PugnaOli
53% · 97 games48% · 70 games
UndyingFly
Undying
Game 2prediction correct13:33
Talon Esports 48%Shopify Rebellion 52%
The model gave 52% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 52:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristleback23savage
50% · 70 games44% · 51 game
Troll WarlordArteezy
Troll Warlord
Tiny
TinyMikoto
52% · 678 games51% · 145 games
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerJabz
46% · 85 games55% · 207 games
DoomSabeRLight-
Doom
Techies
TechiesQ
53% · 110 games48% · 472 games
RubickCr1t-
Rubick
Io
IoOli
51% · 134 games47% · 202 games
EnchantressFly
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2