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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Rubick
Rubick
Poloson · 16 games
44%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 13 games
69%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 11 games
55%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 8 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moon · 7 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Moon · 7 games
43%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 47 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 23 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 21 game
86%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 18 games
83%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1011 picks · 710 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
630 picks · 461 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
584 picks · 430 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
559 picks · 902 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 394 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
516 picks · 363 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
507 picks · 1205 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
502 picks · 1104 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 49%
Hero pool strength58% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:39
Team SMG 46%Team Spirit 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawMidOne
46% · 161 game62% · 97 games
SlarkYatoro
Slark
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMoon
45% · 218 games56% · 217 games
DoomCollapse
Doom
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenAhFu
43% · 193 games48% · 456 games
TinyLarl
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaPoloson
51% · 350 games53% · 110 games
Skywrath MageMira
Skywrath Mage
48% · 42 games
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed41:17
Team SMG 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team SMG in 45:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMidOne
54% · 50 games55% · 80 games
Naga SirenYatoro
Naga Siren
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoon
54% · 196 games46% · 170 games
Dragon KnightLarl
Dragon Knight
Rubick
RubickPoloson
43% · 488 games57% · 246 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Venomancer
VenomancerAhFu
45% · 47 games49% · 135 games
Keeper of the LightMira
Keeper of the Light
46% · 150 games
SilencerMiposhka
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2