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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 23 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 18 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 18 games
61%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 17 games
76%

Team Aster

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 20 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 17 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 16 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 16 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1009 picks · 710 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
629 picks · 463 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
584 picks · 429 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
560 picks · 905 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 395 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
517 picks · 363 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1205 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
501 picks · 1100 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 34%
Hero pool strength55% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total60% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:16
Evil Geniuses 54%Team Aster 46%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 47:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerPakazs
47% · 117 games46% · 27 games
MuertaMonet
Muerta
Underlord
UnderlordChris Luck
45% · 125 games50% · 629 games
TinySumaiL
Tiny
Doom
DoomWisper
47% · 268 games54% · 353 games
BeastmasterXxs
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickMatthew
48% · 522 games56% · 102 games
ChenBoBoKa
Chen
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanda
44% · 215 games57% · 136 games
Skywrath MageFantasy
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct32:15
Evil Geniuses 57%Team Aster 43%
The model gave 57% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 36:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkPakazs
58% · 205 games36% · 27 games
Phantom LancerMonet
Phantom Lancer
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainChris Luck
51% · 101 game50% · 158 games
PangolierSumaiL
Pangolier
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightWisper
51% · 200 games51% · 147 games
BeastmasterXxs
Beastmaster
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMatthew
56% · 55 games47% · 121 game
EnchantressBoBoKa
Enchantress
Jakiro
JakiroPanda
43% · 136 games50% · 244 games
RubickFantasy
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 60%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2