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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 30 games
67%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 16 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 14 games
50%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ari · 10 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
60%

LGD Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
pLAnet · 16 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 13 games
92%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
85%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
pLAnet · 11 games
55%
Ursa
Ursasignature
shiro · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1009 picks · 710 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
629 picks · 463 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
584 picks · 429 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
560 picks · 905 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 395 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
517 picks · 363 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1205 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
501 picks · 1100 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:32
TSM 37%LGD Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 37:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerTimado
49% · 71 game42% · 32 games
Muertashiro
Muerta
Doom
Doomkasane
52% · 305 games56% · 229 games
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
Pangolierbryle-
48% · 388 games52% · 319 games
Beastmasterzeal
Beastmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAri
50% · 199 games49% · 390 games
MiranapLAnet
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorWhitemon
52% · 345 games47% · 338 games
Clockwerky`
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct16:21
TSM 38%LGD Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistTimado
44% · 81 game52% · 85 games
Medusashiro
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbryle-
58% · 203 games50% · 380 games
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerkasane
46% · 137 games53% · 305 games
Beastmasterzeal
Beastmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAri
45% · 138 games54% · 31 game
Elder Titany`
Elder Titan
Rubick
RubickWhitemon
51% · 471 game47% · 229 games
HoodwinkpLAnet
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 66%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2