ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 1:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
9Pandas
Techies
Antares · 37 games
Rubick
Antares · 34 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
Disruptor
Solo · 20 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 17 games
Doomsignature
MieRo · 16 games
Death Prophetoften banned
kiyotaka · 15 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 43 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 27 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 27 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 26 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 24 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 22 games
Doomsignature
Ace · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1009 picks · 710 bans
Tiny
629 picks · 463 bans
Disruptor
584 picks · 429 bans
Nature's Prophet
560 picks · 905 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 395 bans
Snapfire
517 picks · 363 bans
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1205 bans
Ember Spirit
501 picks · 1100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 63%
Hero pool strength61% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:40
9Pandas 42%Gaimin Gladiators 58%
The model gave 58% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 37:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistRAMZES666
DoomAce
Rikikiyotaka
Terrorbladedyrachyo
BrewmasterMieRo
PangolierQuinn
RubickAntares
SnapfiretOfu
PhoenixRodjER
SilencerSeleri
Game 2prediction missed46:11
9Pandas 44%Gaimin Gladiators 56%
The model gave 56% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistRAMZES666
Terrorbladedyrachyo
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
BristlebackAce
AxeMieRo
PangolierQuinn
ChenRodjER
EnchantressSeleri
Skywrath MageAntares
Keeper of the LighttOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 63%
Accuracy by game1 of 2