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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
59%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 23 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 19 games
37%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 13 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 11 games
82%

BETBOOM TEAM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Save- · 17 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
Save- · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Save- · 12 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nightfall · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1005 picks · 707 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
629 picks · 462 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
583 picks · 428 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
560 picks · 905 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 395 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
517 picks · 363 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1204 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
500 picks · 1096 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 37%
Hero pool strength54% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:29
Execration 37%BETBOOM TEAM 63%
The model gave 63% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Execration in 56:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPalos
57% · 65 games48% · 146 games
TerrorbladeNightfall
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomTino-
49% · 144 games47% · 40 games
VenomancerResolut1on
Venomancer
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBob
50% · 62 games48% · 67 games
RikigpK~
Riki
Enchantress
EnchantressShanks
49% · 206 games52% · 67 games
PudgeSave-
Pudge
49% · 157 games
Crystal MaidenTORONTOTOKYO
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed15:5
Execration 37%BETBOOM TEAM 63%
The model gave 63% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Execration in 38:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaPalos
42% · 20 games46% · 33 games
Phantom LancerNightfall
Phantom Lancer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTino-
52% · 314 games48% · 198 games
PuckgpK~
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBob
37% · 149 games50% · 63 games
UnderlordResolut1on
Underlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightShanks
56% · 143 games61% · 86 games
ChenTORONTOTOKYO
Chen
51% · 246 games
RubickSave-
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 73%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2