ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Mirana
Sneyking · 34 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 31 game
Doomsignature
33 · 24 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 23 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 20 games
Rikisignature
Saksa · 19 games
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 29 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 13 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 13 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 13 games
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 12 games
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 11 games
Doomsignature
DM · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1004 picks · 710 bans
Tiny
629 picks · 462 bans
Disruptor
580 picks · 427 bans
Nature's Prophet
563 picks · 907 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
519 picks · 364 bans
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1205 bans
Ember Spirit
500 picks · 1099 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head9 – 1
Model total66% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Tundra Esports 66%OG 34%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports.
Game 2prediction missed15:35
Tundra Esports 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 30:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerSkiter
AlchemistYuragi
Dark Seer33
Invokerbzm
Monkey KingNine
BrewmasterMinD_ContRoL
WindrangerSaksa
VenomancerTaiga
EnchantressSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 66%
Accuracy by game1 of 2