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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 26 games
77%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
79%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
54%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
54%
Lycan
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
85%

Team SMG

Rubick
Rubick
Poloson · 15 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 12 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boomy · 10 games
60%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 8 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Moon · 7 games
43%
Undying
Undyingsignature
AhFu · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1003 picks · 709 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
630 picks · 464 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
577 picks · 425 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
564 picks · 912 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 398 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
520 picks · 366 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
512 picks · 1208 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
501 picks · 1098 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:5
Shopify Rebellion 73%Team SMG 27%
The model gave 73% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 20:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinArteezy
53% · 112 games59% · 217 games
Storm SpiritMoon
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
45% · 224 games55% · 372 games
BeastmasterMidOne
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
44% · 74 games49% · 167 games
Keeper of the LightPoloson
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
43% · 278 games52% · 30 games
Vengeful SpiritAhFu
Vengeful Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
45% · 98 games
Game 2prediction correct29:6
Shopify Rebellion 76%Team SMG 24%
The model gave 76% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 21:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeArteezy
53% · 181 game42% · 22 games
MuertaMidOne
Muerta
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
55% · 207 games44% · 584 games
Death ProphetMoon
Death Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierAbed
53% · 215 games48% · 451 game
DisruptorPoloson
Disruptor
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCr1t-
49% · 109 games53% · 119 games
Earth SpiritAhFu
Earth Spirit
Rubick
RubickFly
50% · 464 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 88%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2