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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Execrationloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 29 games
66%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 15 games
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 13 games
54%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ari · 10 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
60%

Execration

Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
59%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 23 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 19 games
37%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 12 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
998 picks · 708 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
629 picks · 465 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
575 picks · 424 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
566 picks · 912 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 399 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
521 picks · 367 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1208 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
499 picks · 1097 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 30%
Hero pool strength55% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:39
TSM 54%Execration 46%
The model gave 54% on TSM — the game was taken by Execration in 50:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerTimado
47% · 38 games43% · 14 games
MuertaPalos
Muerta
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbryle-
47% · 173 games54% · 238 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAri
57% · 133 games43% · 62 games
Void SpiritBob
Void Spirit
Underlord
Underlordkasane
45% · 62 games51% · 395 games
RubickShanks
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorWhitemon
53% · 303 games
Game 2prediction correct43:30
TSM 53%Execration 47%
The model gave 53% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 43:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaTimado
47% · 18 games61% · 90 games
Naga SirenPalos
Naga Siren
Underlord
Underlordkasane
43% · 65 games52% · 172 games
DoomTino-
Doom
Riki
Rikibryle-
54% · 80 games50% · 223 games
PangolierBob
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickAri
49% · 371 game43% · 75 games
TechiesShanks
Techies
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterWhitemon
42% · 26 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2