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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Asterloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 16 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
pLAnet · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
85%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 11 games
91%
Tusk
Tusk
pLAnet · 11 games
55%
Ursa
Ursasignature
shiro · 11 games
73%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 10 games
70%

Team Aster

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 20 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 17 games
65%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 17 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 16 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 15 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
BoBoKa · 15 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
998 picks · 708 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
629 picks · 465 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
575 picks · 424 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
566 picks · 912 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 399 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
521 picks · 367 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1208 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
499 picks · 1097 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total62% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:28
LGD Gaming 57%Team Aster 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 47:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertashiro
40% · 14 games56% · 146 games
TerrorbladeMonet
Terrorblade
Magnus
MagnusNothingToSay
54% · 82 games48% · 203 games
DoomXxs
Doom
Batrider
Batriderzeal
50% · 262 games44% · 286 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorpLAnet
52% · 436 games52% · 111 games
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
Keeper of the Light
Clockwerk
Clockwerky`
51% · 432 games44% · 480 games
RubickFantasy
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct23:13
LGD Gaming 57%Team Aster 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertashiro
44% · 11 games54% · 270 games
DoomXxs
Doom
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
49% · 324 games46% · 164 games
TerrorbladeMonet
Terrorblade
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
54% · 249 games46% · 89 games
Queen of PainSumaiL
Queen of Pain
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
51% · 160 games55% · 81 game
PugnaBoBoKa
Pugna
Clockwerk
Clockwerky`
51% · 358 games46% · 498 games
RubickFantasy
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2