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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:0
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techiessignature
Antares · 36 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 33 games
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 20 games
55%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 17 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
RAMZES666 · 16 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
kiyotaka · 15 games
47%

LGD Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
pLAnet · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
85%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 11 games
91%
Tusk
Tusk
pLAnet · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
pLAnet · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
996 picks · 708 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
628 picks · 464 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
575 picks · 422 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
566 picks · 915 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 401 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
520 picks · 368 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1208 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
499 picks · 1092 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:23
9Pandas 39%LGD Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 43:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidRAMZES666
55% · 126 games45% · 93 games
Medusashiro
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
57% · 152 games47% · 91 game
Void SpiritNothingToSay
Void Spirit
Doom
DoomMieRo
50% · 191 game61% · 50 games
Magnuszeal
Magnus
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
48% · 93 games42% · 152 games
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
Keeper of the Light
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRodjER
48% · 109 games50% · 285 games
Clockwerky`
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed28:24
9Pandas 39%LGD Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 32:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistRAMZES666
51% · 85 games49% · 92 games
Ursashiro
Ursa
Doom
DoomMieRo
51% · 197 games52% · 62 games
Void SpiritNothingToSay
Void Spirit
Tinker
Tinkerkiyotaka
71% · 3 games48% · 56 games
Underlordzeal
Underlord
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRodjER
52% · 165 games55% · 74 games
PhoenixpLAnet
Phoenix
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterAntares
62% · 18 games38% · 184 games
Enchantressy`
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 73%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2