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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 21 game
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 17 games
47%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 17 games
76%

BETBOOM TEAM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Save- · 16 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
69%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Save- · 12 games
58%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Save- · 11 games
82%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nightfall · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
996 picks · 708 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
628 picks · 464 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
575 picks · 422 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
566 picks · 915 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 401 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
520 picks · 368 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1208 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
499 picks · 1092 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:35
Evil Geniuses 53%BETBOOM TEAM 47%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 30:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightPakazs
53% · 131 game54% · 125 games
AlchemistNightfall
Alchemist
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
57% · 53 games49% · 178 games
KunkkagpK~
Kunkka
Tiny
TinyChris Luck
51% · 525 games44% · 499 games
SnapfireResolut1on
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskMatthew
53% · 288 games47% · 157 games
PudgeSave-
Pudge
Enchantress
EnchantressPanda
45% · 235 games50% · 273 games
Crystal MaidenTORONTOTOKYO
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct26:5
Evil Geniuses 50%BETBOOM TEAM 50%
The model gave 50% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 25:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordPakazs
51% · 49 games55% · 159 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWisper
41% · 47 games58% · 61 game
Dark SeerResolut1on
Dark Seer
Underlord
UnderlordChris Luck
56% · 59 games44% · 338 games
Ember SpiritgpK~
Ember Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanda
45% · 174 games50% · 26 games
Bounty HunterSave-
Bounty Hunter
Rubick
RubickMatthew
50% · 346 games53% · 91 game
JakiroTORONTOTOKYO
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2