ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 41 game
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 27 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 26 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 25 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 24 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 21 game
Doomsignature
Ace · 20 games
Team Aster
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 17 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 17 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 15 games
Rubick
BoBoKa · 15 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
996 picks · 708 bans
Tiny
628 picks · 464 bans
Disruptor
575 picks · 422 bans
Nature's Prophet
566 picks · 915 bans
Tusk
524 picks · 401 bans
Snapfire
520 picks · 368 bans
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1208 bans
Ember Spirit
499 picks · 1092 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 34%
Hero pool strength59% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total84% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:8
Gaimin Gladiators 70%Team Aster 30%
The model gave 70% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 28:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomAce
Queen of PainSumaiL
Terrorbladedyrachyo
Monkey KingMonet
Ember SpiritQuinn
Legion CommanderXxs
Keeper of the LighttOfu
IoBoBoKa
RubickSeleri
Crystal MaidenFantasy
Game 2prediction correct20:3
Gaimin Gladiators 71%Team Aster 29%
The model gave 71% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 26:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerdyrachyo
UrsaMonet
PangolierQuinn
Void SpiritSumaiL
UnderlordAce
BrewmasterXxs
RubickSeleri
IoBoBoKa
Keeper of the LighttOfu
SnapfireFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 84%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2