ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 29 games
Tusksignature
Boxi · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 16 games
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 13 games
Miranasignature
Boxi · 13 games
TSM
Rubicksignature
Ari · 28 games
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 15 games
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 14 games
Disruptor
Whitemon · 13 games
Rikioften banned
Ari · 11 games
Tusksignature
Ari · 10 games
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
996 picks · 708 bans
Tiny
628 picks · 464 bans
Disruptor
575 picks · 422 bans
Nature's Prophet
566 picks · 915 bans
Tusk
524 picks · 401 bans
Snapfire
520 picks · 368 bans
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1208 bans
Ember Spirit
499 picks · 1092 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 38%
Hero pool strength59% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total90% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:9
Team Liquid 78%TSM 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekermiCKe
SlarkTimado
Underlordzai
Storm Spiritbryle-
PangolierNisha
Brewmasterkasane
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Shadow ShamanAri
RubickBoxi
PhoenixWhitemon
Game 2prediction correct34:19
Team Liquid 76%TSM 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenmiCKe
BloodseekerTimado
Doomzai
Alchemistbryle-
PangolierNisha
Death Prophetkasane
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Keeper of the LightAri
Earth SpiritBoxi
RubickWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 90%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2