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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 46 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 23 games
65%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 20 games
85%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 18 games
83%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 29 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 13 games
54%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 13 games
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
bzm · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 11 games
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
DM · 11 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1001 picks · 704 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
632 picks · 466 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
571 picks · 920 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
568 picks · 419 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
527 picks · 406 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 369 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1214 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
500 picks · 384 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:37
Team Spirit 53%OG 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by OG in 44:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYatoro
51% · 49 games47% · 17 games
Phantom LancerYuragi
Phantom Lancer
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderCollapse
50% · 16 games53% · 62 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
39% · 51 game44% · 39 games
EarthshakerMinD_ContRoL
Earthshaker
Chen
ChenMiposhka
55% · 42 games52% · 65 games
Keeper of the LightTaiga
Keeper of the Light
Techies
TechiesMira
59% · 25 games
Game 2prediction correct41:20
Team Spirit 53%OG 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerYatoro
42% · 21 game50% · 14 games
Tinkerbzm
Tinker
Viper
ViperLarl
51% · 48 games59% · 126 games
SlarkYuragi
Slark
Underlord
UnderlordCollapse
45% · 23 games54% · 43 games
Sand KingMinD_ContRoL
Sand King
Rubick
RubickMira
50% · 183 games47% · 129 games
PhoenixTaiga
Phoenix
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
41% · 37 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2