?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
JT- · 10 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 8 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Ghost · 7 games
86%
Lion
Lionsignature
Kaka · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 7 games
43%
Magnus
Magnus
JT- · 6 games
50%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 24 games
71%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 16 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
23savage · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1001 picks · 704 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
632 picks · 466 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
571 picks · 920 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
568 picks · 419 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
527 picks · 406 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 369 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1214 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
500 picks · 384 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:29
Xtreme Gaming 38%Talon Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:06:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenGhost
50% · 52 games62% · 103 games
Bloodseeker23savage
Bloodseeker
Underlord
UnderlordJT-
46% · 52 games60% · 66 games
AlchemistJabz
Alchemist
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPaparazi
47% · 128 games52% · 136 games
BatriderMikoto
Batrider
Rubick
RubickKaka
36% · 387 games61% · 68 games
Nyx AssassinQ
Nyx Assassin
Pugna
PugnaDy
43% · 54 games48% · 300 games
DisruptorOli
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed17:22
Xtreme Gaming 38%Talon Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenGhost
52% · 50 games44% · 15 games
Wraith King23savage
Wraith King
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPaparazi
46% · 146 games52% · 83 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Magnus
MagnusJT-
50% · 20 games53% · 103 games
EnigmaJabz
Enigma
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDy
45% · 25 games46% · 14 games
Bounty HunterQ
Bounty Hunter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowKaka
48% · 42 games56% · 68 games
IoOli
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 69%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2