ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Mirana
Sneyking · 34 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 31 game
Doomsignature
33 · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 23 games
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 20 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 19 games
Rikisignature
Saksa · 19 games
Shopify Rebellion
Undyingsignature
Fly · 26 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Miranasignature
Fly · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1001 picks · 704 bans
Tiny
632 picks · 466 bans
Nature's Prophet
571 picks · 920 bans
Disruptor
568 picks · 419 bans
Tusk
527 picks · 406 bans
Snapfire
526 picks · 369 bans
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1214 bans
Clockwerk
500 picks · 384 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total53% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:8
Tundra Esports 47%Shopify Rebellion 53%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistNine
SvenArteezy
Wraith KingSkiter
DoomSabeRLight-
Underlord33
Storm SpiritAbed
Keeper of the LightSaksa
Nyx AssassinCr1t-
Crystal MaidenSneyking
PugnaFly
Game 2prediction missed27:22
Tundra Esports 50%Shopify Rebellion 50%
The model gave 50% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverSkiter
BatriderAbed
AlchemistNine
LifestealerArteezy
Underlord33
ChenFly
Keeper of the LightSaksa
Legion CommanderSabeRLight-
DisruptorSneyking
Skywrath MageCr1t-
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 53%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2