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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 27 games
70%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 15 games
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 14 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 12 games
50%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ari · 10 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
60%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 21 game
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 18 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 17 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1001 picks · 704 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
633 picks · 465 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
572 picks · 923 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
566 picks · 418 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
528 picks · 406 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 369 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1215 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
499 picks · 384 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total59% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:13
TSM 46%Evil Geniuses 54%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by TSM in 43:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Riki
RikiTimado
52% · 116 games51% · 66 games
Anti-MagePakazs
Anti-Mage
Broodmother
Broodmotherkasane
48% · 128 games54% · 46 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbryle-
59% · 128 games44% · 443 games
RubickChris Luck
Rubick
Pugna
PugnaAri
47% · 58 games50% · 71 game
Nyx AssassinMatthew
Nyx Assassin
Disruptor
DisruptorWhitemon
55% · 312 games42% · 116 games
SilencerPanda
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct16:46
TSM 44%Evil Geniuses 56%
The model gave 56% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 25:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaTimado
51% · 12 games48% · 169 games
DoomWisper
Doom
Broodmother
Broodmotherkasane
53% · 154 games53% · 150 games
SlarkPakazs
Slark
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbryle-
47% · 143 games52% · 54 games
Queen of PainChris Luck
Queen of Pain
Rubick
RubickAri
46% · 511 games50% · 167 games
Monkey KingMatthew
Monkey King
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterWhitemon
52% · 30 games53% · 310 games
DisruptorPanda
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2