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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
59%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 23 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 17 games
41%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 10 games
80%

Team Aster

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 20 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 17 games
65%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 17 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 15 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
29%
Rubick
Rubick
BoBoKa · 14 games
36%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1000 picks · 703 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
636 picks · 462 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
574 picks · 925 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
562 picks · 415 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
530 picks · 407 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 369 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1215 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
499 picks · 385 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:54
Execration 43%Team Aster 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 52:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkPalos
53% · 97 games47% · 130 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Doom
DoomTino-
53% · 248 games56% · 165 games
Monkey KingMonet
Monkey King
Batrider
BatriderBob
49% · 188 games47% · 171 game
DawnbreakerXxs
Dawnbreaker
Enchantress
EnchantressShanks
49% · 289 games43% · 60 games
PugnaBoBoKa
Pugna
51% · 296 games
MiranaFantasy
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct10:37
Execration 45%Team Aster 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 25:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaPalos
little data57% · 89 games
TerrorbladeMonet
Terrorblade
Underlord
UnderlordTino-
42% · 74 games53% · 85 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaBob
48% · 135 games56% · 58 games
BloodseekerXxs
Bloodseeker
Disruptor
DisruptorShanks
54% · 355 games40% · 63 games
IoBoBoKa
Io
54% · 269 games
RubickFantasy
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 60%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2