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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
The Oversightloss 0:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TiltedBoyswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Oversight

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
N1NE · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
N1NE · 5 games
20%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
antoha · 4 games
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
layme · 3 games
0%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Skyward · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
antoha · 3 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Atoufix · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
N1NE · 3 games
0%

TiltedBoys

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ezekiel · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Axe
Axe
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1002 picks · 703 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
638 picks · 463 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
575 picks · 929 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
564 picks · 415 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
533 picks · 409 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
527 picks · 369 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1215 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
499 picks · 386 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 61%
Hero pool strength61% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total74% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:36
The Oversight 41%TiltedBoys 59%
The model gave 59% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 1:06:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Techies
TechiesAtoufix
64% · 10 games36% · 10 games
Legion CommanderEzekiel
Legion Commander
Magnus
MagnusSkyward
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 74%
Series resultTiltedBoys 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1