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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavawin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
x5 Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lava

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 11 games
73%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 4 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
payk · 4 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
75%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
payk · 4 games
50%

x5 Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Wij · 7 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 6 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wij · 5 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
FCR · 5 games
20%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
FCR · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Wij · 4 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
FCR · 3 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
FCR · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1005 picks · 701 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
639 picks · 465 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
577 picks · 929 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
564 picks · 415 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 410 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
528 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
519 picks · 1215 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
500 picks · 386 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct55:23
Lava 53%x5 Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 53:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingpayk
47% · 112 games54% · 145 games
TerrorbladeBenny
Terrorblade
Pangolier
Pangolierdrakeel
49% · 156 games45% · 198 games
DoomFCR
Doom
Silencer
SilencerJimmyCoff666
52% · 91 game55% · 16 games
Bounty HunterWij
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction missed22:8
Lava 49%x5 Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by Lava in 22:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerpayk
48% · 56 games59% · 21 game
Anti-MageBenny
Anti-Mage
Snapfire
Snapfiredrakeel
41% · 195 games53% · 103 games
VisageFCR
Visage
Silencer
SilencerJimmyCoff666
49% · 89 games54% · 216 games
MiranaWij
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 52%
Series resultLava 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2